THE OVERLAP ANALYSIS
Our source overlap analysis from initial collection runs shows less than 30% domain overlap between GPT-4o and Perplexity citations. GPT-4o concentrates on ESPN, CBS Sports, Sports Illustrated, and The Athletic. Perplexity surfaces KenPom, Barttorvik, HerHoopStats, and conference-specific fan sites.
WHY LOW OVERLAP CREATES ENSEMBLE VALUE
When two forecasters draw from different evidence bases, their errors are uncorrelated. An ensemble that averages their confidence scores outperforms either solo because correct picks reinforce each other while errors cancel out.
We're watching the Source Intelligence leaderboard throughout the tournament to see which domain types correlate with correct predictions. Results will shape how we weight ensemble picks by mid-tournament.
See this tracked in real-time as the tournament plays out.