AI Model Accuracy Rankings Over Time - March Madness 2026

Historical timeline of model accuracy rankings as the 2026 NCAA Tournament progresses. Tracks how each AI model's cumulative accuracy changes round by round, from the First Four through the Championship game.

The rank tracker reveals whether early tournament leaders maintain their advantage in later rounds. Models that perform well in the Round of 64 may struggle in the Elite 8 where matchups become less predictable and historical seed patterns break down.

Accuracy is computed as the percentage of correct predictions weighted by round (later rounds worth more points). GPT-4o, Gemini 2.5, and Perplexity Sonar Pro are ranked at each stage to identify which model has the most durable prediction advantage.

Cumulative Accuracy

Running percentage of correct predictions across all games played, updated after each completed game.

Round Weight

Multiplier applied to correct picks by round: Sweet 16 = 2x, Elite 8 = 4x, Final Four = 8x, Championship = 16x.